The race in Washington’s 4th CD between George Fearing and Richard “Doc” Hastings could be a close one.  Until recently, no polls were available to show how this race might turn out leaving only speculation that Hastings would easily win with similar numbers as previous elections.  Even strong challengers rarely brought in over 40 percent of the vote against Hastings who has a significant cash advantage over Fearing.  But Fearing’s campaign, described as scrappy by local media, looks to down ballot voting, and the overall poor political environment for republicans nationally as having potential to put it’s campaign over the top next Tuesday.  And a recent internal poll suggests for the first time in many election cycles, Hastings may be in trouble.

On the question of whom to support, 52.5% would vote for Doc Hastings; 47.5% would choose George Fearing.

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Voters in Washington’s 4th Congressional District are clearly unhappy with the direction of the country (79% wrong track).  This is a surprisingly strong number in an area that conventional wisdom has marked as “conservative”.

On the question of “Are you happy wiht the performance of your Congressman”, 65% of voters said ‘No’.

With the Fearing campaign within the margin of error of roughly 6 percent and a clear dissatisfaction of both Hastings and the overall direction of the country, the Pasco Democratic candidate is clearly in the hunt for Hastings congressional seat.

Since the poll announcement campaign staff have described last minute fundraising as “coming in at a good clip” as the campaign scrambles to buy as much media as possible before the November 4th election.

To date, no internal poll has been provided by the Hastings campaign.  But the the Washington State Republican Party has been quick to attack their opponent on technicalities.  Earlier in the week Washington State Republicans were calling for Charter Media to pull one of Fearing’s ads because the trailing “approval” message did not meet a 4 second requirement.  And Thursday, Washington State Republican Party Chair, Luke Esser, criticized the Fearing campaign over a late FEC report filing.

The Washington State Republican Party noticed the delay, saying it appears as though Fearing was “hiding something” from voters in the Fourth Congressional District.

“This is a critical time with (campaign finance report) deadlines coming much faster. So it is a big deal that they could hide this,” said Luke Esser, chairman of the Washington State Republican Party from his office in Bellevue.

The Fearing campaign fixed the ad and FEC reports were filed within the grace period.  The cash strapped and understaffed campaign attributed its staff’s professional obligations to the late report and the FEC assessed no penalties to the campaign.

But the attacks show a weakness in the Hastings campaign: over confidence.  The Fearing campaign marginally out raised Hastings the first two weeks of October and is scrambling to buy media, while the Hastings campaign may have under bought and underestimated the political environment.  Equally, some newspapers in the district may have done the same often citing previous elections as a precursor for 2008.  The new poll suggests all is not what it seems.

To learn more visit the George Fearing campaign website.